Abstract

Experience in other drug crop producing regions has illustrated that a reduction in opium and coca cultivation in one country has often led to an increase in drug crop cultivation in neighbouring countries. With the dramatic reduction in opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan during the 2000/01 growing season, there is considerable speculation over the potential for increased production in neighbouring countries, particularly the Central Asian Republics (CARs). However, given the scale of the decline in cultivation in Afghanistan, opium poppy cultivation will also need to expand in a number of different source countries, including those in South and South East Asia, and Latin America, if the shortfall in the supply of opiates is to be met in the longer term.

Illicit opium poppy cultivation requires the right environmental, socio-economic, goverance, and market conditions to coincide if it is to be cultivated extensively. For example, whilst there are few environmental constraints on opium poppy cultivation, yields can vary considerably with varying soil and climatic conditions. Opium poppy is particularly vulnerable to frost and humidity, and moisture stress can reduce its productivity substantially. Crop damage and low yields can make a resource intensive crop like opium poppy particularly unprofitable.

Yet, despite the ideal environmental conditions, opium poppy still requires a low paid and skilled labour force. The absence of alternative sources of income and formal credit systems also facilitate extensive opium poppy cultivation. However, even when both environmental and socio-economic conditions overlap, the illegal nature of the crop requires that the governance in that area is weak and the rule of law is not enforced - the governance conditions. There also has to be a market for the final product and the social and logistical infrastructure to transport it there – the market conditions.

This Paper seeks to assess which countries are most equipped to respond to the current shortfall of opium in Afghanistan against these key conditions. Initially the Paper reviews the environmental, socio-economic, governance and market conditions required for opium poppy cultivation. These generic conditions are then applied to the specific countries reviewed and the countries are ranked according to risk.

The Paper highlights that Afghanistan is anomalous with regard to illicit opium poppy producing countries. The Paper suggests that there are currently very few areas where these environmental, socio-economic, political and market conditions coalesce to the same degree as they did in Afghanistan. Consequently, no one country is currently in the position to compensate for the substantial shortfall in opium poppy cultivation experienced in Afghanistan during the 2000/01 growing season. The Paper also suggest that the possibility that any one country can meet the deficit in opium production caused by events in Afghanistan this year, is even less feasible due to the relatively low yields obtained in other source regions.

The Paper indicates that some countries are able to respond to the current shortfall in opium production more quickly than others, however, all are constrained in one form or another. Burma, in particular, has the capacity to increase production but there are questions over how the final product will be transported to the Western European market in the short term. Colombian criminal groups, on the other hand, have shown their responsiveness to changes in supply and demand, diversifying both product and market in the past, but the environmental, socio-economic and governance conditions in Colombia are currently not conducive to a substantial increase in opium production. Whilst in the CARs, production could increase significantly but only if there is state failure and the provinces of Khatlon in Tajikistan, Issyk Kul in Kyrgyzstan, or the Ferghana Valley as a whole, split from the state and descend into total chaos.

As such, the Taliban-controlled territories of Afghanistan still represent the highest risk of extensive opium poppy cultivation. The political commitment of the Taliban currently hangs in the balance. The increasing hostility of the Taliban towards the international community, growing market and political pressure from opium traders, and increasing resentment of the ban amongst the rural population all challenge the Taliban’s resolve as the 2001/02 planting season approaches. Time will tell.

However, if the opium ban in Afghanistan is sustained, the Paper concludes that there will be a deconcentration in the cultivation of opium poppy and the emergence of new and more diverse trafficking routes into Western Europe and the United Kingdom. Such a diffuse threat will clearly require more geographically diffuse and strategic interventions.